A Game of Inches #1: Obama’s Lukewarm Faithful
The Obama-Romney match up is shaping up to be a nail biter. Our most recent Reuters-Ipsos poll has them in a statistical deadheat; other polls show a similar narrowing. Part of this trend is without a...
View ArticleGame of Inches #2 — Likely Independent Voters: Who they are? And what do they...
(For the first part of this series, click here) The US presidential election in November will be a close one. Many poll watchers, myself included, see this one as a nail bitter which will be won at...
View ArticleStorm Clouds on the BRIC Horizon: Falling consumer optimism in Brazil,...
The economic meltdown of late 2008 and early 2009, while global in nature, most squarely affected Europe, the United States, and more generally the industrialized world. In many of these places,...
View ArticleChávez, Variable Polls, and Misiones: Reflections on the Venezuelan...
On 7 October 2012, Venezuelans showed up to cast their vote for president on Election Day with an unprecedented sign of voter enthusiasm pushing final turnout up over 80%. This race pitted Hugo Rafael...
View ArticleAmerican Pragmatism or American Radicalism?
Public Opinion Support for a ‘Mixed’ Deficit Reduction Solution Washington is presently in crisis mode as time is running out before automatic tax increases and spending cuts go into effect in early...
View ArticleJust more about Jobs, Jobs, Jobs or Setting the stage for Long-Term Economic...
Today, February 12th 2013, President Obama will give the 227th State of the Union address and the 5th of his presidency. This specific speech will have special significance because it is the first of...
View ArticleOwning the “Change” Agenda: The 2013 Italian parliamentary elections
On February 24th and 25th, Italy will hold a general election which will produce a new Prime Minister. This occurs against the backdrop of a dismal economy where over the last 10 years the GDP did not...
View ArticleTeetering on the edge: The 2013 Kenyan Presidential election
Today, Keynans will vote for a new president. The whole world is watching as well. Why? The last Kenyan presidential election in 2007 lead to widespread violence as supporters of Raila Odinga...
View ArticleStorm clouds on the Brazilian horizon? President Dilma’s poll numbers and her...
In 2010, Dilma Rouseff, Lula’s handpicked successor, won easily in the second round run-off election against Jose Serra, the opposition candidate (Dilma 56% of vote versus 44% Serra). At the time,...
View ArticleIncumbency is still King: Brazil’s Dilma is still the favorite in 2014, even...
The Brazilian presidential election is more than a year away. But already pundits and the odds-makers are assessing President Dilma’s chances of being reelected. For many, dark clouds are on her...
View ArticleAll Presidents have their Waterloo: Reflections on Obama’s Declining Approval...
The Obama administration is definitely in a funk. Polls of all stripes have shown a strong decline in his approval ratings. Indeed, Pollster.com shows that from Obama’s inauguration in late January...
View ArticleMeet Clifford Young | President, US Public Affairs
Get to know Clifford Young, President, US Public Affairs as he discusses how pollsters are born rather than made, and why he finds managing and solving complex research puzzles involving public policy...
View ArticleIncumbency is King! Political Fundamentals Put Dems and Clinton’s Odds at...
Polls, pundits and even bookmakers have already elected President Hillary Clinton. However, at this point in the Game of Oval Office Thrones, models are better oracles than polls – and the models do...
View ArticleWhat an Actual Trump Voter Looks Like
This post, written by Cliff Young and Julia Clark, originally appeared in The Daily Beast. We thought Trump was just a summer fling for the GOP, but it’s becoming increasingly more likely that some...
View ArticleElection Poll Accuracy Over Time
Election polls especially suffer from two specific types of measurement error: (1) election salience among voters at the time of the poll and (2) strategic voting decisions at the time of the vote...
View ArticleForget the debate: Two simple reasons a Republican will likely win in 2016
The following article by Clifford Young and Julia Clark originally appeared in Reuters:...
View ArticleWhy Donald Trump has a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination
The following article by Clifford Young and Chris Jackson originally appeared on the Reuters blog:...
View ArticleIt’s Nativism: Explaining the Drivers of Trump’s Popular Support
Introduction A year ago who would have believed it—Trump the presumptive nominee for the Republican party! For the longest time, most expected Trump would implode. But to the prognosticators chagrin...
View ArticleThe Unlikable Duo: Trump and Clinton
The present consensus among pundits is that Trump has lost serious momentum since shoring up the minimum number of delegates in early May. Is there any truth to this? The short answer is yes. Trump...
View ArticleRepublicans seen as stronger on Terrorism: Impact of Brussels-like events on...
Electorally speaking, terrorist attacks like the one in Brussels are more likely to benefit Republicans than Democrats. Republicans historically have been seen as more credible on “terrorism” and...
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